Crowdsourcing World Cup Predictions

In case you didn’t know, the 2018 FIFA World Cup is in full swing. After some spectacular matches in in the group games (and Germany’s surprising defeat) we enter the Quarter Finals this Friday. The remaining contenders, Uruguay, France, Brazil, Belgium, Sweden, England, Russia, and Croatia, will continue to battle it out for the final victory.

While some put their faith in the prophecies of an allegedly psychic Russian cat, Dalia is offering an alternative for those who want to know who might win the world cup: crowdsourcing global predictions.

Dalia is conducting a recurring global survey to get some insights into who the world thinks will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. The survey includes over 7,000 respondents from over 60 countries per round and will be conducted 4 times within the duration of the competition.

So far, two rounds of the survey have been completed, with the first collected on June 29th and on July 4th.

The results show that Brazil is the world’s favourite to win the world cup; before the round of 16, 25% of respondents selected brazil as the most likely winner. After the round of 16, it increased to 36%, still above all over countries. Although Argentina (11%), Portugal (9%), and Spain (9%) were somewhat well favoured in the first prediction round, by the second round they had all been eliminated from the competition. On the other hand, expectations for France and Russia have increased a lot, from 7% to 17% and 8% to 14% respectively. Obviously, as the games continue, the performance of each team will continue to have an impact on future predictions.

2nd Update:

The heat is on. The World Cup is now a standoff between the loveable Croatian underdogs and the French heavy-hitters.

For the Croatian national football team, the final match also represents a chance at redemption 20 years in the making: the closest they’ve come to winning was in 1998 when they were beaten by France in the Semi-finals, finishing in 3rd place behind France (the winner) and Brazil (the runner up).

Will determination allow the Croatians to defeat the French, or will the French beat the Croatians again, 20 years later?

As the games have progressed, global opinion has shifted from favoring Brazil to France. Right now, as we head into the Finals, 65% of our global respondents expect France to win, compared to 35% who predict Croatia will be the winner.

Final Update:

On Sunday, June 15, France defeated Croatia 4–2, winning the 2018 World Cup Championship. This means Dalia’s crowdsourced predictions were correct in the last two survey waves. 37% of the world predicted France would win before the start of the Semi-Finals, and 65% of the world predicted France would win prior to the Finals.


The following countries were included in this global survey. The results are not representative by country, or globally.